Flu down locally, but raging nationally

An early estimate of flu vaccine efficacy showed it was about 62 percent effective, which is about what historically the vaccine has been, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said.

The flu season began early this year, about a month before what it normally does, said Dr. Thomas Frieden, director of the CDC. While it is impossible to predict how flu season will go, evidence from this week suggests areas like the South and Southeast might be past the peak.

Doctors and University hospitals reported heavier caseloads of flu in November and December but less recently.

?It hit hard and fast early on,? said Dr. Mark Newton, medical director of the Emergency Room at Doctors Hospital. ?Now it has slowed down a little bit here.?

Rates of people coming in with flu at University were much higher at the end of November and beginning of December, said Dr. Craig Smith, medical director for infectious diseases. Where about half the people coming into the ER back had flu-like illness, it was down to about 25-30 percent now, he said.

In a CDC study of 1,155 people from Dec. 3 to Jan. 2, this year?s flu vaccine was 62 percent effective overall, showing about 55 percent efficacy against influenza A and 70 percent effective against influenza B. Historically, flu vaccines have ranged from about 50-70 percent effective in any given season, said Dr. Joseph Bresee, chief of the epidemiology and prevention branch of the Influenza Division at CDC.

An analysis of flu vaccine effectiveness published last year in the journal Lancet Infectious Diseases found an overall efficacy of about 59 percent for seasonal flu vaccines. A study published last year from the Australian National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health of seasonal flu vaccine effectiveness from 2007 to 2011 found overall effectiveness was 62 percent, with results ranging from 31 percent to 88 percent.

?The flu vaccine is far from perfect but it is still by far the best tool we have? to prevent infection, Frieden said.

Even if the person still gets the flu, getting the vaccine can result in a milder illness that could make a big difference in especially vulnerable populations such as the elderly, Smith said.

A smaller effect ?is better than no effect,? he said.

Source: http://chronicle.augusta.com/news/health/2013-01-11/flu-down-locally-raging-nationally

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